全球价值链重构的经济效应--兼论中美经贸摩擦的影响

2017年,中美关系发生了实质性变化,美国对华战略从合作走向竞争。新冠肺炎疫情下,中美关系更是面临新的不确定性,中美经贸摩擦将影响中美两国的经济,进而产生连锁反应,造成全球价值链的重构。利用2014年世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)和假设提取法,测算中美经贸摩擦和全球价值链重构对世界43个国家或地区的经济影响,并重点模拟中美之间贸易由国内供给替代对增加值和劳动力就业的最大影响。结果表明:第一,基准模型设定下,经济效应存在地区异质性,中国周边地区、美国周边北美自由贸易区受到的影响最大,反映了区域性生产网络的存在。第二,相对美国,中国受影响更大,增加值下降2.5%以上;其余受影响较大的国家有爱尔兰、卢森堡、荷兰;印度和欧洲大部分地区受影响较小。第三,中美经贸摩擦对每个行业的影响不同,受影响最大的行业为中国的家具制造业和其他制造业,计算机、电子和光学产品制造业,以及美国的航空运输业。第四,假设其余国家或地区卷入中美经贸摩擦,存在替代效应和全球价值链重构,部分国家或地区增加值和劳动力就业均上升,上升最多的为22.42%。建议深化实施"一带一路"倡议,主动与周边国家或地区开展经济合作,强化区域价值链的影响,同时积极培育和发展国内产业链。

The Economic Effect of Global Value Chain Reconstruction--Evaluating the Influence of Sino-US Economic and Trade Friction

In 2017,there existed fundamental changes in Sino-US relation;American strategy towards China has been changed from cooperative to competitive. Under the background of new coronavirus outbreak,Sino-US relation is facing more uncertainties;and Sino-US trade friction will have impact on the economy of these two countries,which will in turn lead to chain effects and the reconstruction of global value chain. The authors employ the 2014 world input-output database(WIOD)and the hypothesis extraction method to calculate the economic impact of Sino-US trade friction and global value chain reconstruction on43 countries and regions in the world,and focus on the maximum impact on the added value and labor employment when the trade between China and the United States is replaced by domestic supply. The results show that:(1)There is regional heterogeneity in economic effects under the setting of the benchmark model,the Asia-pacific region around China and the north American free trade area around the United States are most affected,reflecting the existence of regional production networks.(2)Compared with the United States,China is more affected,with its added value declining by more than 2.5%;the remaining countries most affected are Ireland,Luxembourg and the Netherlands;and India and most of countries in the European Union are less influenced.(3)Further analysis shows that Sino-US trade friction has different impacts on each industry;the most affected industries are China’s furniture manufacturing and other manufacturing industries,computer,electronics and optical products,and air transportation.(4)The authors assume that the rest of the countries are involved in Sino-US trade friction,substitution effect and the global value chain reconstruction exists,the added value and labor employment in some countries will rise,and the highest rate of that is 22.42%. The authors put forward that we should deepen the implementation of BRI,initially develop economic cooperation with neighboring countries or regions,strengthen the impact of regional value chain,and positively cultivate and develop domestic industrial chain.