传染病类突发公共卫生事件风险评估与应对

突发公共卫生事件会冲击社会经济运行,特别是具备传染性时这种冲击的程度和范围会更深更广,而通过建立模型来模拟传染病类突发公共卫生事件,将为传染病评估和应对提供积极有效的依据。故以SEIR模型为基准,针对SEIR模型存在的不足,将重大传染病事件分为三个阶段发展三阶段模型,将相关参数由静态参数改进为动态参数,分类模拟"封城"以及传染病存在复发可能性的情形,并利用2020年新冠肺炎疫情数据进行动态模拟。对经典SEIR模型以及改进的三阶段模型分别进行参数估计和系统仿真发现,在无人为干预的自然传播情况下,传染病感染数量峰值会出现在1~2个月后;加强隔离、加大医疗资源投入能显著减小传播规模;改进的三阶段模型能对传染病类事件起到很好的预测作用,可为未来传染病评估和应对提供有效依据。由此,为有效应对传染病类突发公共卫生事件,建议从加强隔离、加大医疗资源投入、疫情后期持续关注等角度着手完善我国传染病应急防控体系,在传染病发生时能够对相关人员做到尽早隔离,提高治愈率,减少传染数量,从源头上降低突发公共卫生事件对经济的负面影响。

Risk Assessment and Response of Public Health Emergencies in Infectious Diseases

Major public health events will impact the socio-economic operation,especially when it is contagious,the extent and scope of such impact will be more serious. Establishing the model can help us to simulate public health emergencies in infectious diseases;and it will provide us with the effective basis for the evaluation and countermeasures of that. Based on the SEIR model and considering its deficiency,the authors develop a three-step development model,change related parameters from static ones to dynamic ones,simulate the situation of lockdown and reappearance possibility,and carry out the dynamic simulation based on data of new coronavirus outbreak in 2020. It is found that:under the situation of no human intervention,the peak number of infections will appear in one or two months;strengthening isolation and increasing medical investment will significantly reduce the scale and scope of outbreak;and the improved three-step model can play its role in forecasting infection related issues,and it can provide us with effective basis for the evaluation and countermeasures of the infection in the future.Therefore,to effectively cope with the public health emergencies,we should,first,perfect out prevention system from aspects such as restricting isolation,increasing investment in medical resources and continuously focusing on this issues;second,we should isolating related person as early as possible with the happening of diseases and improve the recovery rate to reduce the number of infections,and reduce to fundamentally weaken the negative impact on economy.