再议我国对美出口与美国GDP增长的相关性——基于协整分析和Granger因果检验

针对高运胜(2004)的病态计量模型,本文通过协整分析认为:我国对美出口与美国GDP增长率之间不存在长期均衡关系,但是我国对美出口与美国GDP之间存在一个正相关的长期均衡关系,美国经济发展有利于我国扩大出口。另一个结论是:美国GDP每增加1美元,我国对美出口增加量是减少的,我国对美出口收入弹性大于0小于1。后面的结论支持了高运胜的分析:我国对美出口产品中劳动密集型产品占有较大比重,需求弹性相对较低。Granger因果关系检验表明:美国GDP是我国对美出口的Granger原因,我国对美出口却不是美国GDP的Granger原因,我国对美出口对美国经济产生不了威胁。通过进一步分析,提出了几个政策建议。

Rediscussing the Relationship between China-American Export and American GDP--Based on the Cointegration and Granger Causality Estimation

Against GAO Yun-sheng's false econometrics model, the author dre w a conclusion based on the Cointegration estimation: China-American export and American GDP growth rate have no long balance relationship; but China-American e xport and American GDP do have a long positive balance relationship; The develop ment of USA's economy is in favor of China-American export. Another conclusion i s: the growth of China-American export decreases if American GDP increases one d ollar with the time and China-American export income elasticity is larger than 0 and smaller than 1.The latter favored GAO Yun-sheng's analysis: most of the pro ducts exported to USA are labor-intensive ones and the demand elasticity is low er. The Granger Causality estimation concluded: American CDP is the Granger Caus ality of China-American export, but China-American export isn't the Granger Caus ticity of American GDP; China-American export doesn't threaten the American econ omy. After the further analysis, we gave some policy suggestions.