| Abstract: | An input-output framework is employed to estimate the indirect as well as direct effects of industrial robots on employment by industry sector and occupation. Net employment impacts are defined as the combined effects of the production and the use of industrial robots under the assumption that the demand for goods produced with this new technology is unaffected. These employment effects are estimated as the difference between a base economy (1977) and the same economy with an additional robot-producing sector and given (1990) stocks of robots installed in manufacturing industries. Six scenarios are defined by alternative levels of Robotics sector output and installed robots. The results show that job displacement is 4.5 to 6.2 times greater than job creation, that under the most extreme scenario the aggregate net job loss is 718,000, about 0.7 percent of total 1984 employment, and that the growth occupations (engineers) are highly skilled and white-collar while the declining occupations (welders, painters, machine operators, laborers) are relatively low skilled and blue-collar. |
