Technological races and stock market value: evidence from the pharmaceutical industry

We provide estimates of the abnormal stock market returns associated with pharmaceutical firms’ announcements of technological and regulatory successes in drug development. On the basis of these estimates, we find empirical support for two key features of technological race models. First, we observe that leaders in the innovation race record higher abnormal returns than do latecomers when they announce a success. Hence, firms should indeed be racing to complete the innovation process before their rivals. Second, pharmaceutical firms are adversely affected by the technological and regulatory success of their rivals, implying that interfirm spillovers in drug development are not sufficient to offset technological rivalry. Additional results are also produced regarding the impact of competition on R&D racing and the extent of therapeutic competition.