我国隐性资本流入的影响因素实证研究

在资本账户尚未开放的情形下,贸易伪报、FDI等构成国际金融资本流入中国的重要渠道。隐性资本的持续大规模流入,对我国央行宏观调控及经济正常发展具有潜在的负面影响。因此,理解隐性资本流入的决定因素具有现实意义。实证结果表明,宏观经济基本变量等内部因素是吸引隐性资本流入的主要"拉动"力,而日美经济增长速度则是"推动"隐性资本流入的重要变量。为此,我国应从经济发展战略的高度强化经济增长质量,完善金融市场体系,提升抵御外部冲击的能力,同时逐步有序开放资本账户,降低隐性资本流动规模。

An Empirical Study on Determinants of Hidden Capital Flowing Into China

Under the regulation of capital account,international financial capital flows into China through trade mis-invoicing and disguised FDI.The large inflow of hidden capital imposes potential adverse impact to macro-control and economic development.Therefore,it is essential to understand the determinants of hidden inflows.The empirical study shows that internal factors including GDP growth,trade value/GDP are the dominant pull forces,while the economic growth of U.S and Japan are playing an important role in pu...