Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research |
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Authors: | Hans Fehr |
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Institution: | (1) IGIER-Bocconi University, Via Roentgen, 1, 20136 Milano, Italy;(2) Advanced School of Economics (SSE), San Giobbe, 873, 30121 Venezia, Italy |
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Abstract: | This paper surveys recent advances in the field of computable general and partial equilibrium models dealing with pension
issues that take into account various aspects of uncertainty. Whereas previous quantitative research with deterministic models
solely focussed on efficiency losses due to labor market distortions from pay-as-you-go (paygo) financing, stochastic simulation
models highlight the insurance effects of social security systems and allow to quantify the welfare consequences from myopic
behavior. The results from these studies challenge the common wisdom about the cost and benefits of social security. While
previous studies typically either recommended a move towards a more funded system or proposed a tight tax-benefit linkage,
recent results from stochastic models indicate that welfare losses due to reduced insurance coverage compensate the gains
due to improved labor market incentives. Consequently, paygo financing and progressive benefit formulas should not be eliminated
on pure efficiency grounds. Current research tries to qualify whether this conclusion is robust in models with private insurance
institutions and/or macroeconomic risks. |
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Keywords: | |
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