新台币升值对台湾出口的影响及实证分析

通过对1973～1992年新台币汇率变化与台湾出口之间的关系两个变量的单位根检验和协整分析,得出以下结论:台湾的汇率与其出口之间不存在长期稳定的协整关系,新台币的升值没有立即抑制台湾的出口,并且也未对其产生滞后影响,从而打破了传统理论认为货币升值会抑制出口并增加进口的说法.新台币汇率的变动及结果给人民币汇率的调整提供了借鉴意义.

Empirical Analysis of the Influence of NTD Appreciation over Taiwan's Export

In this paper we analyze the relationship between Taiwan's exchange rate and its expert from 1973 to 1992. The traditional theory thinks that currency appreciation will restrain an area's export amount.We analyze the correlation between the New Taiwan Dollar(NTD)appreciation and exportation amount through unit-root test and co-integration analysis of the two variables.It is concluded that there is no long and stationary co-integration relationship between them,in other words,the NTD appreciation has not restrained Taiwan's export amount,and will not affect it later.Outwardly,such a conclusion has disobeyed the traditional model,but in fact,this phenomenon corresponds to economic principles.