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The J-curve effect and the US–Canada forest products trade |
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| Authors: | Jungho Baek |
| Institution: | aCenter for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, USA |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamic effect of the US–Canada exchange rate on bilateral trade of forest products between the two countries. Special attention is given to investigate the J-curve hypothesis: whether or not the trade balance for US forest products trade with Canada benefits from a decline in the value of the US dollar. We adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to estimate quarterly bilateral trade data between the US and Canada from 1989 to 2005. We find little evidence of the J-curve phenomenon for US forest products trade with Canada. |
| Keywords: | Autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration Exchange rate Forest products trade balance J-curve effect Softwood lumber |
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