The viable measure for hospitals? --Healthcare expenditure forecasting under the global budget system |
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摘 要: | After the implementation of the global budget system, hospitals need to negotiate individual's healthcare budget in order to face the uncertainty of income and cost control. The major contribution of this study is to predict the increase of the inpatient healthcare expenditure using ARIMA model under the global budgets system to establish a better allocation rule for healthcare expenditure budget during the negotiation with the Bureau of National Health Insurance. The healthcare expenditure prediction model proposed in this paper will serve as a justification for hospitals' negotiation. Although Taiwan has abundant experiences implementing national health insurance, there are still a limited number of literatures concerning economic significance of the budget allocation rule. This paper intends to fulfill this gap. We find that as the individual healthcare expenditure increases, the number of physicians does not function as a bargaining chip. However, there are significant differences in the increase rate and quality of healthcare within the scope of insurance coverage and the increase rate of healthcare for healthy insured. The findings in this paper can serve as policy references in hospital management.
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关 键 词: | 医疗保健支出 预算制度 医院管理 预测模型 全民健康保险 ARIMA模型 谈判过程 保险覆盖面 |
The viable measure for hospitals? --Healthcare expenditure forecasting under the global budget system |
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Authors: | YAN Yu-Hua HSU Shuo-Fen FANG Shih-Chieh |
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Institution: | [1]Graduate Institute of Management, National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 811, Taiwan [2]Tainan Municipal Hospital, Tainan 717, Taiwan [3]Department o fRisk Management and Insurance National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 811, Taiwan [4]Department of Business Administration, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan |
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Abstract: | global budgets system inpatient healthcare expenditure time-series analysis |
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Keywords: | global budgets system inpatient healthcare expenditure time-series analysis |
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