低碳交通研究进展与启示

交通运输行业是能源消耗及碳排放三大行业之一,是应对气候变化的重点领域。加快开展低碳交通相关研究,支撑制定交通运输碳减排政策措施,具有重要的理论和现实意义。通过文献综述,梳理分析了低碳交通研究进展,主要分为交通运输碳排放影响因素分析、未来预测与潜力分析、减排措施评估分析、核算方法与评价等研究主题。基于文献梳理分析发现,交通运输碳排放影响因素主要包括经济发展水平、人口规模、交通运输总周转量、交通运输碳强度、城镇化率、城市空间分布、运输结构、交通燃料价格等;交通运输碳排放未来预测和潜力的研究目前以情景分析方法为主;交通运输碳减排措施总体包括技术性、结构性和管理性措施;交通运输碳排放核算方法与评价研究角度和领域跨度较大。目前相关研究存在量化研究影响因素过程中过度聚焦宏观层次因素,部分影响因素研究存在重复解释现象,货运峰值研判、低碳交通投资等主题研究相对有限等不足之处。

Research Progress of Low-Carbon Transportation and Its Enlightenment

Transportation industry is one of the three major industries of energy consumption and carbon emission,and it is the key field to deal with climate change.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to accelerate the research on low-carbon transportation and support the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies and measures for transportation.Based on the literature review,this paper analyzes the research progress of low-carbon transportation,which is mainly divided into the analysis of influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions,future prediction and potential analysis,assessment and analysis of emission reduction measures,accounting methods and evaluation.It is found that the influencing factors mainly include economic development level,population size,total turnover of transportation,carbon intensity of transportation,urbanization rate,urban spatial distribution,transportation structure,transportation fuel price,etc.The future prediction and potential are mainly studied by scenario analysis.Emission reduction measures generally include technical,structural and regulatory measures.Emission accounting method and evaluation research angle and field span is large.At present,there are some shortcomings in the quantitative study of influencing factors,such as over-focusing on macro-level factors,repeated interpretation of some influencing factors,and relatively limited research on the peak freight transport and low carbon transport investment.