环境保护税对经济和碳排放影响研究——以江苏省为例

环境保护税的征收,有效减少了污染物排放,同时也会对经济和碳排放产生一定影响。通过构建包含环境保护税模块的CGE模型和江苏省2018年环境社会核算矩阵,模拟分析不同环境保护税税率对江苏省经济发展和碳排放的影响。研究发现:(1)征收环境保护税会给江苏省经济带来负面影响,但影响程度较小,当征收税率上升时,江苏省GDP、出口、省际调出等会下降,而居民和地方政府收入几乎没有变化。(2)环境保护税税率上升时,不仅会增加环境保护税收入,还会减少江苏省碳排放水平。(3)对于大多数行业,环境保护税税率上升会造成行业产出下降,但是对于污染物排放强度较低的行业,行业产出会上升,碳排放会增加。(4)为了更好地完成碳减排目标,建议江苏省可以适度增加环境保护税税率或加征碳税,对于污染物排放浓度较低的行业,可以采取补贴措施鼓励发展;对于污染物排放强度较高的行业,要推动转型升级,降低排放强度。

Study on Impact of Environmental Protection Tax on Economy and Carbon Emissions:Evidence from Jiangsu Province

The collection of environmental protection tax can effectively reduce the emission of pollutants,but it also has a certain impact on the economy and carbon emissions.Through the construction of CGE model including the environmental protection tax module and the environmental social accounting matrix of Jiangsu Province in 2018,the impact of different environmental protection tax rates on the economic development and carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province is simulated and analyzed.The results show that:(1)levying environmental protection tax has a negative impact on the economy of Jiangsu Province,but the impact is small.When the tax rate raises,the GDP,export and inter provincial transfer out of Jiangsu Province will decrease,while the income of residents and local governments will hardly change.(2)When the tax rate of environmental protection tax increases,it will not only increase the income of environmental protection tax,but also reduce the carbon emission level of Jiangsu Province.(3)For most industries,the increase of environmental protection tax rate will lead to the decline of industry output,but for the industries with lower emission intensity,the industry output and the carbon emission will increase.(4)In order to better achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction,it is suggested that Jiangsu Province should appropriately increase the tax rate of environmental protection tax or levy carbon tax.For industries with low pollutant emission concentration,subsidy measures can be taken to encourage development.For industries with higher emission intensity,transformation and upgrading should be promoted to reduce emission intensity.