Stochastic differential equation modeling the prevalence of rare chronic diseases with an application to systemic lupus erythematosus |
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| Authors: | Ralph Brinks Rebecca Fischer‐Betz Sandra Landwehr Matthias Schneider Guido Giani |
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| Affiliation: | 1. German Diabetes Center, Institute of Biometry and Epidemiology, , D‐40225 Duesseldorf, Germany;2. Heinrich‐Heine‐University, Department of Rheumatology, , D‐40225 Duesseldorf, Germany |
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| Abstract: | In this article we describe a system of stochastic differential equations to model the age‐specific prevalence of rare chronic diseases from incidence and mortality rates. As an application, the age profile of the prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus in England and Wales in1995 is calculated. The results are in good agreement with the observed epidemiological measures. |
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| Keywords: | illness‐death model epidemiology compartment model |
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