| 我国合理市盈率与股市泡沫的实证分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 屠孝敏.我国合理市盈率与股市泡沫的实证分析[J].广东经济管理学院学报,2003,18(3):52-57. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 屠孝敏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 广东经济管理学院,广东,广州,510262 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 市盈率是被广泛用来测量股市泡沫风险的一个重要指标。本根据“股票的理论价格应该是未来各期红利的贴现之和”这一传统金融理论，导出用以衡量股市泡沫成分的基准——合理市盈率的计算方法。通过分析发现市盈率的合理值是一个动态值，据此测量出的上海A股市场泡沫成分自1993年以来呈明显下降趋势，说明我国股票市场上的投资日趋成熟，投资行为日趋理性。
|
| 关 键 词： | 合理市盈率 中国 股票市场 经济泡沫 实证分析 计算方法 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-4100(2003)03-0052-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年4月1日 |
A Positive Analysis on China Stock - market Bubbles and Rational P/E |
| |
| Tu Xiao-min.A Positive Analysis on China Stock - market Bubbles and Rational P/E[J].Journal of Guangdong Institute of Business Administration,2003,18(3):52-57. |
| |
| Authors: | Tu Xiao-min |
| |
| Institution: | Guangdong Institute of Business Administration |
| |
| Abstract: | The P/E ratio is a very important index which is wildly used to measure the risk of stockmarket bubbles. This paper tried to explore a method to calculate the rational P/E which is used as a norm to measure the risk of stock-market bubbles on the basis of the financial theory. The rational P/E is not a constant. Since 1993, the bubbles in Shanghai stock-market have decreased. The investors in the stock-market have becoming more reasonable. |
| |
| Keywords: | Stock-market Bubbles Rational P/E Increasing Coefficient |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
