THE IMPACT OF TAX REGIMES ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE PATTERNS

This paper discusses the trade implications of value‐added taxes (VATs) that refund domestic taxes paid by exporters of domestic production while imposing taxes on imports of foreign production. VATs are used by over 140 countries of the world, including every member of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development except the United States. An investigation of the implications of border‐adjustable taxes on the U.S. trade balance suggests that VATs positively affect trade competitiveness but with differing impacts by sector. These results do not necessarily extend to the conclusion that a U.S. VAT would increase U.S. exports; such a prediction requires economic forecasting and appropriate simulations. The present results do imply that the adoption of VATs by other countries appears to have benefited U.S. trade. Panel data over 20 years, 29 industries, and 145 countries is used to conduct the analysis. (JEL F10, H20, K34)