中国木材市场监测指标体系构建实践

基于9个省域11个木材市场的调研数据,并结合已有文献中的研究成果,从市场监测角度出发,应用信息科学理论分析木材市场影响因素并构建监测指标体系。结果表明:影响木材市场运行的外部因素有4个方面23个主要指标,内在因素有9个方面59个主要指标;内在因素中能够持续反映和左右木材市场监测并构成指标体系的有4个方面25个具体指标,可为木材市场监测系统平台开发提供参考依据、市场行情分析奠定参数基础;同时,决定市场信息采集的核心指标有13个,这为采集模板设计和市场数据获取提供了基本遵循。

Establishment Practice on the Monitoring Indicators System of China's Timber Market

(1) Background——China's timber market has developed rapidly since the beginning of the new century.However, China's timber market monitoring information collection lacks a unified standard, which seriously affects the market monitoring ability and level.(2) Methods——From 2016 to 2020,we conduct field research, information collection, and data verification in 11 key timber markets in 9 provinces, a total of 13,267 records of timber product market transaction data have been recorded.Based on these research data and literature results, from the perspective of market monitoring, the application of information science theories and indicator screening, market surveys and expert consultation methods are used to analyze the factors affecting the timber market and build a monitoring indicator system.(3) Results——The external factors that affect the operation of the timber market include 23 main indicators in four aspects: economic development, laws and regulations, social population, and the international environment.The internal factors include 59 main indicators in 9 aspects: market supply, market demand, market entities, transaction objects, transaction prices, and transaction status, market location, transaction time and market management; internal factors that can continuously reflect and influence the timber market monitoring and constitute an indicator system include 4 aspects, transaction time, transaction location, transaction products and transaction information.The 4 aspects cover 25 specific indicators, a certain date, the administrative area, the trading place, the source of wood, the name of the wood species, the product type, the product grade, the product specification, the total inventory, the stock capital, the total purchase, the purchase price, the total purchase value, the supply volume, total sold, selling price, total selling value, selling on provincial city, provincial sales, balance, gross profit, selling rate, gross profit rate, transaction volume, and transaction amount, which can provide a reference basis for the development of the timber market monitoring system platform, and lay a parameter basis for market analysis.At the same time, there are 13 core indicators that determine the collection of market information are a certain date, trading place, the source of wood, the name of the wood species, product type, product grade, product specifications, total inventory, total purchases, total purchase value, total selling value, and selling on provincial city and provincial sales.This provides basic compliance for the collection template design and market data collection.(4) Conclusions and Discussions——There are many factors affecting the development and operation of the timber market, including external factors such as economic development, laws and regulations, social population, and international environment, as well as internal factors such as market supply, market demand, market entities and transaction objects.And the internal factors are the key points of timber market monitoring.This indicator system refers to relevant research results at home and abroad, and some information elements need to be revised and supplemented.At the same time, the cost-benefit analysis and monitoring effect comparison between different indicator systems, the comparison of indicator screening methods, the analysis of information classification methods, the classification and coding of monitoring indicators, the correlation analysis between independent variables and dependent variables, and the importance of each indicator in the system framework, and other academic considerations such as reliability and validity testing all need to be further strengthened.Moreover, in due course it is necessary to adjust monitoring indicators, add and delete core indicators, and optimize collection templates according to the timber market and regulatory requirements changes.