城市化与畜产品生产预测：健康与环境风险调整法

集约化农业生产所带来的环境影响和健康危害已经使人们逐渐认识到建立可持续农业发展途径的必要性。随着人们收入的增长,城市化的迅速发展成为消费模式转变的最为显见的驱动力。揭示在考虑到可持续发展的风险和不确定性的情况下对未来农业生产规划的预测,和在决策过程中恰当的风险指标,而这些内容的引入将极可能改变与畜产品设备配置和集约化程度相关的未来政策。以中国为例,研究主要目标为:(1)阐明如何将风险指标引入到决策过程中从而避免健康风险带来的负面结果;(2)阐明如何在农业生产规划中明确风险和不确定性,以达到可持续农业发展。

Urbanization and Livestock Production:Risk-adjusted Approaches

Environmental and health risks have associated with intensive livestock production,which has increased awareness and established the need to identify pathways towards sustainable agriculture.One of the most inevitable forces driving intensification trend is that the rapid urbanization has strongly co-related with the changing consumption patterns as a consequence of increasing income.The aim of the paper is to show that future planning of agricultural and livestock productions accounting for risks and uncertainties encompass sustainable developments.In particular,explicit indications of risks for environment and healthy in a decision making process may considerably alter forward-looking policies on livestock facility allocation and intensity level.Taking the China case,we pursue two main goals:1) to show how risk indicators can be involved in the decision making process to avoid negative consequences associated with health risks,and 2) how to explicit treat risks and uncertainties in agricultural production planning for achieving sustainable agricultural development.