贸易自由化与中国经济增长关系的实证分析

本文以衡量贸易自由化的各种指标为出发点,选取贸易依存度作为研究指标,借助于协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法分析1990年以来我国外贸开放度与经济增长之间的关系,发现贸易依存度、出口依存度、进口依存度与经济增长存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,各变量之间有着单向因果关系,且出口、进口都对经济增长起着促进作用,故而,我国应二者并重,积极参与贸易自由化的进程。

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Trade Liberalization and China's Economic Growth

This paper begins with various indices of trade liberalization, selects international trade dependent ratio as study object, and analyzes the relationship between trade openness and China's economic growth since 1990 by virtue of econometric methods as cointegration test and Granger causality test. This paper finds that there is a long-run equilibrium between international trade dependent ratio, export dependent ratio, import dependent ratio and economic growth, and there is a single-direction causality between variables. Moreover, both export and import promote the economic growth. As a result, China may actively take part in the process of trade liberalization.