上市公司负债筹资风险的预测——基于中国资本市场的实证分析

本文根据上市公司负债筹资风险的成因界定其含义并将其划分为四种类型,分别通过主成分分析和逻辑回归分析构建的负债筹资风险预测模型相互结合能够较为准确地预测负债筹资风险,但也存在不足,运用财务比率分析法等定性分析方法对预测结果进行修正,使预测结果更为准确。

Listed company liability financing risk's forecasting-Demonstrative analysis basing on China capital market

Debt Financing Risk(DFR) of Listed Companies in China can be divided into four kinds on the basis of its meaning.DFR forecast models are established respectively by principal component analysis and logistic regression analysis for empirical research.These two forecast models both do well in DFR forecast.However, there are many differences between these models.By financial ratio analysis, the outcome is more exact.So it is necessary to forecast DFR by quantitative analysis combined with qualitative analysis.