我国“三驾马车”与电力需求关系研究

基于投入产出理论，从整个社会需求与生产的联系入手，研究“三驾马车”与电力需求之间的关系，为剖析电力与经济的关系提供方法。首先构建了“三驾马车”拉动电力需求的数学模型，然后利用我国已公布的5张竞争型投入产出表编制了5张非竞争型投入产出表，在此基础上测算了我国“三驾马车”对电力需求的拉动作用及其变化情况。研究表明：在我国，“三驾马车”中的消费对电力需求的拉动作用最大，其次是投资，出口的拉动作用最小，2000年以来，消费的拉动作用在逐年下降，投资和出口的拉动作用在逐年上升。

Study on the Relationship between the "Troika" and the Electricity Demand

Based on the input-output theory and starting from the connection between the entire social demand and production, this paper studies the relationship between the Troika （the three main components of GDP） and the electricity demand, providing an effective method for analyzing the relationship between electricity and economy. Firstly, a mathematical model is established for analyzing the driving effects of the Troika on the electricity demand. Secondly, five uncompetitive input-output tables are worked out according to the five competitive input-output tables published in China. Thirdly, by means of the mathematical model and uncompetitive input-output tables, the paper calculates the driving effects of the Troika on the electricity demand and analyzes waning and waxing of influence among the three components. The result of the studies shows that, of the three components of GDP, consumption has the largest driving effect on electricity demand, investment comes next, and export exercises the least influence. Since 2000, the influence of consumption has been dropping while investment and export are rising in importance year by year.