Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth |
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| Authors: | Peter H Kobos Jon D Erickson Thomas E Drennen |
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| Institution: | Kobos:;Staff Economist, Office of the Chief Economist, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185. E-mail Erickson:;Associate Professor, School of Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington VT 05405. E-mail Drennen:;Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY 14456;and Senior Economist, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185. E-mail |
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| Abstract: | This article reports on a simulation and scenario analysis of Chinese passenger vehicle growth and resulting energy demand and CO2 emissions. The model includes provincial level logistic growth functions with saturation levels representative of neighboring Asian economies, income growth measured in international dollars, and both estimated and literature-based income elasticities. Scenarios explore variation in key parameters, including income and population growth rates, elasticity income ranges, fuel economy, and vehicle saturation. Countrywide base case results estimate growth from 4.22 to 54.33 passenger vehicles per thousand people from 1995 to 2025. Resulting passenger vehicle oil demands and CO2 emissions increase nearly 17-fold. |
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