Modeling complex systems

Empirical observations suggest that linear dynamics are not an adequate representation of ecological systems and that a realistic representation would require adoption of complex nonlinear dynamical systems with characteristics encountered in complex adaptive systems (CAS). Adequate modeling should include and combine elements, such as strategic interactions among economic agents, nonconvexities induced by nonlinear feedbacks, separate spatial and temporal scales and modeling of spatiotemporal dynamics, and allowance of alternative time scales. Ignoring these characteristics might obscure very important features that we observe in reality, such as bifurcations and irreversibilities or hysteresis. As a consequence, the design of policies that do not take CAS characteristics into account might lead to erroneous results and undesirable states of managed economic–ecological systems.