成都市房价影响因素的回归分析与事后模拟

运用SPSS软件,以GDP、市区居民人均可支配收入、住宅投资完成额、住宅施工面积、住宅竣工面积和市区人口为自变量,采用1997～2005年9年的数据,建立了多元线性回归模型,对成都市房价这一因变量进行了模拟分析。模型通过各种检验,得出了影响成都市住房价格最重要的因素是市区人口和住宅施工面积这一结论;最后,并运用模型做了事后模拟,其结果比较接近市场价格。

Regression Analysis and After-Simulation of House Price in Chengdu City

This paper use SPSS to model the trend of house price tendency in Chengdu City. A model of multiple linear regression analysis is built, in which the house price is chosen as dependent variable, urban population and area of construction are chosen as independent variables. Although GDP, average disposable income of citizens, fulfillment of investment, area of construction, area of completion are initially chosen as independent variables, they do not pass the significant test. Finally, analysis of this model is presented and a good after-simulation is made.