An alternative approach to relative indices of development and potential for change of the nation-state

Quantitative indices are proposed to reflect the degree of development and the potential for change of the nation-state. The former index is based upon the intensity of energy consumption, while the latter is defined as the product of agricultural land per capita and gross national product per capita. It is shown that acceptable levels of some welfare functions are achieved above a critical energy intensity called the development threshold, and it is postulated that above a higher critical level of energy intensity significant environmental deterioration will occur. Data is presented for 104 countries and high levels of change potential are shown to be correlated with a relatively large number of options for further development. On the other hand, very low levels of change potential are found in countries which have difficulty in supporting their populations. It is postulated that change potential is more useful than either population density or poverty as an indicator of when a country is in need of a vigorous population policy. It is concluded that below the development threshold further industrialization is beneficial while above it this may not be true. It is also concluded that at high levels of the change potential and at intensities below the development threshold high population growth rates may be tolerated.