A forecasting model for the market of competitive products

The classic way of performing a market forecast for industrial products implies an econometric analysis of the historical data of consumption and their projections into the future. The present work illustrates a fresh approach to the problem; the demand for the product under study is evaluated in a mathematical model which takes into consideration the technological and commercial characteristics of this product and correlates it with competitive and substitutive products. Competitiveness is measured by assigning merit scores to the characteristics of the different products, and calculating the relevant “weights of importance” on the basis of the historical consumptions. Forecasts of consumption are made by estimating the future scores of the characteristics and extrapolating the weights of importance. An example of complete application of the model to the textile market in Italy is included.