| 基于Leslie矩阵模型的中国人口总量与年龄结构预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 解保华,陈光辉,孙嘉琳.基于Leslie矩阵模型的中国人口总量与年龄结构预测[J].广东商学院学报,2010,25(3):15-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 解保华 陈光辉 孙嘉琳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广东商学院,国民经济研究中心,广东,广州,510320
2. 华南师范大学,经济与管理学院,广东,广州,510006 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省重点文科建设基地重点课题，广东省哲学社科十一五规划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 选用Leslie矩阵人口模型能够较全面地考虑到影响人口总量与年龄结构的各种主要因素,预测得到：在现行计划生育政策不变的情况下,中国人口总量将在2024年前后达到峰值14.2亿左右,这与国家人口发展战略研究课题组预测的在2033年前后达到人口峰值15.2亿左右有较大差别;中国人口老龄化有加速发展的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | Leslie预测模型 人口总量 年龄结构 |
Forecasting the Total Amount of Population and Age Structure in China Based on Leslie Matrix Model |
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| XIE Bao-hua,CHEN Guang-hui,SUN Jia-lin.Forecasting the Total Amount of Population and Age Structure in China Based on Leslie Matrix Model[J].Journal of Guangdong Business College,2010,25(3):15-21. |
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| Authors: | XIE Bao-hua CHEN Guang-hui SUN Jia-lin |
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| Institution: | XIE Bao-hua1,CHEN Guang-hui1,SUN Jia-lin2 (1.National Economy Research Center,Guangdong University of Business Studies,Guangzhou 510320,China,2.School of Economics & Management,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510006,China) |
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| Abstract: | By using Leslie matrix population model,this paper makes a comprehensive study of various main factors which can have impact on the total population and the age structure.It is predicted that under the present birth control policy,the Chinese total population will peak at 1,420,000,000 in 2024,which is quite different from result released by the National Population Development Strategy Research Team who predict that the number will peak at 1,520,000,000 in 2033.Meanwhile,the aging tendency of population in ... |
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| Keywords: | Leslie matrix model total amount of population age structure |
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