我国出口贸易影响经济增长的路径研究

本文在总结前人理论的基础上,寻找到出口贸易通过技术进步、人力资本积累等7条路径对经济增长产生影响。并利用我国的相关资料,运用协整技术、因子分析等方法定量化地研究了我国出口贸易如何通过不同的路径影响经济增长以及影响强度的大小。研究结果显示,我国出口贸易通过不同路径对经济增长产生了显著的影响;出口贸易对人力资本积累的贡献较小、对产业结构升级的影响有限、对市场化进程及技术进步有一定的作用;出口贸易主要通过带动投资促进经济增长。

Effect Path Study of Export on the Economic Growth in China

An empirical study based on the effect path of export on economic growth is the deep-going direction of economic theory. This paper, on the basis of absorbing some existing economic theories, finds 7 paths by which export influences the economic growth, such as technology progress, human capital accumulation, etc.. It utilizes the relevant data from China, adopting the Co-integrated test and Factor-analysis etc., to study how export influences the economic growth in China through each path and how strong the influential strength each path has. The results of the research show that export business has an obvious impetus to the economic growth of China through the said 7 paths, and has some effect on the progress of technology and marketization, but it makes less contributions to human capital accumulation and has a limited influence on the upgrading of industrial structure. Export promotes economic growth mainly through the increase of investment.