美国家庭债务与消费同步运动的周期性研究

美国家庭债务是战后美国经济运行的重要微观机制之一,对近70年来美国家庭消费与债务经济的发展有着极为重要的作用。21世纪以来美国家庭债务的爆炸式增长引发了学界对美国家庭债务与消费内在关系的广泛关注。本文旨在探讨美国家庭债务与消费行为的内在关系与动态变化,在分析二战以来美国家庭债务规模的历史演变与发展趋势的基础上,分析美国实际家庭债务与消费增长之间的同步运动特征,并利用LSTR非线性模型定量验证和探讨美国家庭债务与消费同步运动的周期规律。研究结果表明,家庭债务与消费的内在关联性随着经济环境的变化而变化,在经济扩张阶段与经济收缩阶段呈现出差异性的同步运动规律,家庭债务与消费同步运动具有明显的周期特征,与经济的周期运行具有较高的耦合度。

Research on the Cyclical Characteristic of the Co-movement between the U.S. Household Debt and Consumption

The household debt is one of the most important micro mechanisms in U.S.economy,which has been the driving power of consumption and debt-economy since 1970s.The explosive growth of household debt since 2000 has attracted enormous attention on its relationship with consumption.To further explore this relationship,this paper analyzes the historical changes and developing trends of household debt,points out the statistical characteristic of the co-movement,and uses a LSTR non-linear model to verify and explore the cyclical characteristic.The results show that,the relationship between household debt and consumption would alter according to the economic environment.The co-movement demonstrates obvious differences in expansion and contraction times,which further verifies its cyclical characteristic and its coupling with the business cycle