银行危机经济代价的影响因素研究

选取77个国家发生的89次银行危机为样本，分别以危机后的经济衰退程度和通胀成本作为银行危机经济代价的度量标准，采用简单线性回归模型对银行危机经济代价的影响因素进行了分析。研究发现，危机前的经常账户表现越差、房地产价格下降幅度越大，则危机后的经济衰退程度越严重。危机前的股票价格指数上涨越快，银行危机的通胀成本则越高。危机中政府财政支出的增加可以显著的降低危机后的经济衰退程度，危机中贬值策略的实施能够显著降低银行危机的通胀成本，危机中货币供应的增长则会显著提高危机后的通胀水平。

The Determinants of the Economic Cost of Banking Crisis

This paper chooses 89 banking crises happened in 77 countries as samples to study the determinants of the economic cost of banking crisis, using the simple linear regression model. It uses two indicators including the degree of economic recession after the crisis and inflation cost as a measure of the economic cost of banking crisis. The results show that the worse the performance of the current account before the crisis is, the more serious the economic recession after the crisis is, so does the decline of the real estate prices. The fast growth of the stock price index before the crisis will raise the inflation cost. The increase of government expenditure in the crisis can significantly reduce the degree of economic recession after the crisis. The implementation of the devaluation strategy during the crisis can significantly reduce the inflation cost of the banking crisis, while the growth of money supply in the crisis will significantly raise it.