The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, OX1 3QY Oxford, United Kingdom;2. CGIAR Research Programme on Agriculture, Climate Change and Food Security, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 21, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark;3. Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, the University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada;4. Carnegie Mellon School of Design, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, United States;5. Center for Language and Cognition, University of Groningen, Postbus 716, 9700 AS Groningen, The Netherlands;6. Land Dynamics Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands |
| |
| Abstract: | The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times is a new method for foresight and futures researchers and practitioners. Designed and developed to explore the complexity, chaos, and contradictions of postnormal times and what might come next, the three tomorrows method uses a multi-layered approach to situate and analyze trends, emerging issues, and imaginings of the future(s), including complex, horizonspecific forecasts. In this paper, we provide a theoretical overview of the key concepts underlying our approach, including the three forms of ignorance and uncertainty as well as the Menagerie of postnormal potentialities, which we developed as a mechanism for challenging deeply held convictions, illuminating entrenched contradictions, and enlivening novel considerations. |
| |
| Keywords: | Postnormal times Complexity Methods Uncertainty Ignorance Menagerie of postnormal potentialities |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
