Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Statistical Sciences and School of Economics, Management and Statistics, University of Bologna, Via Belle Arti, Bologna 41, I-40126, Italy;2. CSEF, University of Salerno, Via Giovanni Paolo II 132, Fisciano 84084, SA, Italy;3. University of Göttingen, Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen, Germany;1. Faculty of Engineering, Tunku Abdul Rahman University College, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;2. Faculty of Engineering, Computing and Science, Swinburne University of Technology (Sarawak Campus), Jalan Simpang Tiga, 93350 Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia;3. Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;4. Institute for Intelligent Systems Research and Innovation, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia |
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| Abstract: | The issue of model uncertainty is central to the empirical study of economic growth. Many recent papers use Bayesian Model Averaging to address model uncertainty, but (Ciccone and Jarociński, 2010) have questioned the approach on theoretical and empirical grounds. They argue that a standard ‘agnostic’ approach is too sensitive to small changes in the dependent variable, such as those associated with different vintages of the Penn World Table (PWT). This paper revisits their theoretical arguments and empirical illustration, drawing on more recent vintages of the PWT, and introducing an approach that limits the degree of agnosticism. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian Model Averaging Growth regressions Growth econometrics |
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