Environmental outlooks: How they frame futures and long term uncertainty |
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Affiliation: | 1. Institute for Choice, University of South Australia, 140 Arthur St, North Sydney, NSW, Australia;2. Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney, St James Campus (C13), Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia;1. Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Academy of Medicine, Department of Neurology, Lithuania;2. Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Academy of Medicine, Department of Intensive Care, Lithuania;1. Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Heyendaalseweg 141, 6525 AJ Nijmegen, The Netherlands;2. Department of Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Toledo 402, 80134 Naples, Italy;1. Transport Research Centre – TRANSyT-, Department of Transport and Territory, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, C/Profesor Aranguren, 3, 28040, Madrid, Spain;2. Transport Studies Unit, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom |
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Abstract: | Futures studies intend to structure our knowledge and our judgement about the future by handling facts and values in a certain way. In other words, futures studies frame futures. These frames might be powerful, triggering social action and societal transformation, yet they risk to be criticised and provoke scepticism. The environmental field has a long tradition in futures studies: environmental outlooks. Some of these outlooks, e.g. those published by the IPCC are among the most prominent examples of outlooks that provoke scientific, social and political debate, create commotion and provoke action. Part of these discussions deal with how outlooks frame the future and how they handle the uncertainty inevitably linked to framing futures. The way these challenges are dealt with may affect the overall assessment of an environmental outlook. This article attempts to identify the way environmental outlooks frame futures. We do not strive for exhaustiveness, but deliberately restrict to an in-depth analysis of a handful of recent environmental outlooks. We conclude that environmental outlooks reflect a lack of clarity and argumentation upon how they frame futures and how they deal with uncertainty. This epistemological and methodological ambiguity risk to affect the outlooks’ credibility and impact. |
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Keywords: | Futures studies Uncertainty Framing futures Environmental outlooks |
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