产出吸引、制度演进与增量改革的产权边界——基于中国制度演进路径的动态考察

制度演进理论将制度变迁行为归结为制度主体对环境的学习和适应过程,在完全信息和缺乏外在约束条件下,制度将会按照某种方式向最优的均衡路径逼近。但是,信息的不完全性、经济实体的制度兼容性以及转轨经济面临的产权、效率约束都会改变制度演进的路径和结果。根据Barro(1991)和Skott(1999)的分析框架,通过构建制度的动态演进方程,文章对在一定约束条件下的制度演进长期均衡路径进行了考察,勾勒出一幅全新的制度演进图景。同时,运用相关的宏观经济数据,文章考察了模型对中国经济制度演进路径的解释能力。

Output Attraction,Economic Evolution and the Boundary of Property Rights in Incremental Reforms——Dynamic Research on the Economy Evolution Path in China

The theories of institutional evolution considered institutional vicissitudes as the process of learning and self-adapting to environment. Under the condition of sufficient information and lack of explicit constraint, institution will converge to its optimal path in some way. However, insufficient information, institutional compatibility of real economy, the constraints of property right and institutional efficiency facing by transformation economy will change the paths and results of institutional convergence. With the analyzing frame of Barro (1991) and Skott(1999), the paper insights into the long-term equilibrium path of institutional evolution under some constraints and draw a brand-new outline of institutional evolution in the way of evolutionary equation. At the same time, with a group of macroeconomic data, the paper proves the analyzing ability of this model.