Simple axioms for countably additive subjective probability |
| |
Authors: | Igor Kopylov |
| |
Affiliation: | Department of Economics, University of California, 3177 SSPA Social Science Plaza, Irvine, CA 92697, United States |
| |
Abstract: | This paper refines Savage’s theory of subjective probability for the case of countably additive beliefs. First, I replace his continuity axioms P6 and P7 with a simple modification of Arrow’s (1970) Monotone Continuity. Second, I relax Savage’s primitives: in my framework, the class of events need not be a σ-algebra, and acts need not have finite or bounded range. By varying the domains of acts and events, I obtain a unique extension of preference that parallels Caratheodory’s unique extension of probability measures. Aside from subjective expected utility, I characterize exponential time discounting in a setting with continuous time and an arbitrary consumption set. |
| |
Keywords: | Subjective probability Monotone Continuity Countable additivity Exponential time discounting |
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录! |
|