A closer look at the world business cycle synchronization |
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Authors: | Pedro André Cerqueira |
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Affiliation: | 1. Faculty of Economics and GEMF, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
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Abstract: | This paper uses a transformation of the period-by-period index proposed by Cerqueira and Martins (2009), to overcome some of its shortcomings, in a non-parametric estimation to analyze how business cycle synchronization for a sample of 111 countries evolved in the period 1960–2007. The period-by-period index is able to distinguish between negative correlations due to episodes in single years, asynchronous behavior in turbulent times and synchronous behavior over stable periods and the non-parametric approach provides a more detailed analysis than the use of a parametric approach. The results show that since the nineties the synchronization at the world level, within and between country groups, experienced a dramatic increase reaching the highest values ever at the sample end. |
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