实验市场中的价格预期

采用4个变化的口头双向拍卖模拟市场(2个先稳定后通胀,2个先通胀后稳定),本研究发现通胀市场中的预期与理性预期假设吻合良好,同时通货预期不受通胀率的影响。相反稳定市场不支持理性预期模型。结合Williams(1987)的研究结果,本研究提示市场设置是影响稳定市场和通胀市场表现差异的主要原因。

PRICE EXPECTATIONS IN EXPERIMENTAL MARKET

In an experiment of four markets of oral double auctions in which inflation is involved in someperiods, we find that in general the rational expectation model is valid in markets with varying inflation rates,that is, different inflation rates have no effect on price expectations. In contract, the model fails in marketswith stationary inflation rates. Combining with Williams (1987)'s results, this suggests that market parame-ters and experimental procedures may be responsible for the differences between the ...