基于系统动力学的危险化学品运输风险因素研究

为了降低危化品运输事故频次，规避危化品在运输过程中的风险，基于系统动力学模型，从人、机、环、管4个维度构建危化品运输风险因素指标体系，使用AHP法对指标权重进行赋值，结合风险因素间的因果关系构建参数方程，利用Vensim软件仿真模拟危化品运输风险水平的变化趋势，确定单因素变量值和人、机、环、管风险子系统权重的变化对危化品运输风险系统动力学模型的影响程度。结果表明：安全意识薄弱、设备故障等风险因素的变动以及人、机、环、管风险子系统的权重变动都会影响危化品运输风险水平，人、机、环、管4个子系统对危化品运输风险的影响程度从高到低依次是人、管、环、机。研究结果可为降低危化品运输过程中的风险和制定危化品运输事故预防策略提供一定参考。

Research on risk factors of hazardous chemicals transportation based on system dynamics

In order to reduce the frequency of hazardous chemicals transportation accidents and avoid the risk of hazardous chemicals transportation, based on the system dynamics model, a risk factor index system of hazardous chemicals transportation was constructed from the four dimensions of man-machine-environment-management, the AHP method was used to assign the index weights, and parametric equations were built combining the causal relationship between risk factors. Vensim was used to simulate the change trend of the risk level of hazardous chemicals transportation, and the influence of the changes in the value of single factor variables and the weight value of the man-machine-environment-pipe subsystem on the whole model was determined. The results show that the changes in risk factors such as weak safety awareness, equipment failure, and the weight changes of the four subsystems of man-machine-environment-management will affect the risk level of hazardous chemicals transportation, and the impact degree of the four subsystems of man, machine, environment and management.The results can provide a certain reference for reducing the risk in the process of hazardous chemicals transportation and formulating the prevention strategy of hazardous chemicals transportation accidents.