河南省耕地与粮食变化分析及预测

河南省是我国重要的粮食生产基地,其稳定的耕地资源对粮食生产具有重要意义.本文利用河南省29年耕地资源和粮食产量数据进行分析,研究了粮食生产和耕地资源的变化特征.结果表明,随着河南省人口的不断增长,耕地资源在不断减少,其人均耕地面积也在不断下降;河南省粮食总产量和单产极不稳定,给社会经济发展和粮食安全带来了隐患.最后,建立GM(1,1)预测模型,对2010年、2015年和2020年粮食产量、人均耕地等分别进行了预测.针对预测结果,提出了稳定、提高耕地资源和粮食生产的具体建议与对策,为政府正确决策提供了科学依据.

Analysis and Prediction of Arable Land and Grain Change in Henan Province

Henan province is the most important grain production base where the steady arable land resource is very important for food production in China. The paper studies the change features of food production and arable land based on the data of land resource and food production in the past 29 years. The result shows that the land resource and arable land per capita decline continually with the rising of the population in henna province. Secondly, grain output and yield of per unit area is very instable, that has ...