济宁市农村综合空心化影响因素与机制研究

目的]基于济宁农村调研获得的66个村庄数据及501份村民现实生活状态问卷,以空心化在人口、土地、产业三方面特征为依据,构建农村综合空心化测度的指标体系,定量与定性结合研究综合空心化的影响因素与机制。方法]文章运用熵值法计算村庄综合空心化指数,采用因子分析法和逐步回归分析方法,提取综合空心化的显著影响因素,归纳综合空心化的影响机制。结果]济宁市农村空心化的区域差异明显,综合空心化差异低于人口和土地空心化区域差异,但高于产业空心化区域差异;经济发展、村庄规模、设施水平、土地收益等是济宁市农村发展的关键因子,其中人口劳动活力、村庄土地收益、人口土地规模是农村综合空心化的显著影响因素;特定发展阶段使农村人口劳动活力变低,受制度约束村庄土地规模相对上升;产业与就业向城镇、开发区集聚导致村庄土地收益降低,设施服务相对落后加剧人口劳动活力降低;农户的收入水平、受教育程度越高,返村意愿越弱,但其恋土情结又使宅基地退出滞缓,最终导致人口劳动活力降低,村庄土地规模相对上升。结论]综合空心化是乡村人地关系地域系统各要素相互作用的结果。治理农村空心化,首先,要承认乡村人口减少和老龄化加剧有其必然性;其次,发挥乡村多功能价值,围绕农村一二三产融合发展,壮大特色乡村产业;第三,深化土地产权制度改革,使村民获得的权益由部分实现到充分实现。

RESEARCH ON INFLUENCING FACTORS AND MECHANISM OF RURAL COMPREHENSIVE HOLLOWING IN JINING CITY

The purpose of this paper is to establish an index system of comprehensive measurement and study the influencing factors and mechanism of rural hollowing quantitatively and qualitatively on the basis of 501 questionnaires on villagers'' real life conditions obtained from 66 villages in Jining as well as the features of rural hollowing in population, land and industry. The entropy method was used to calculate the rural hollowing index. Factor analysis and stepwise regression analysis were used to extract and summarize the significant influencing factors and mechanism of rural hollowing. The result showed that: (1) there were significant regional differences of rural hollowing in Jining. The regional difference of rural hollowing was lower than that of population and land hollowing while higher than that of industrial hollowing. (2) Economic development, village scale, infrastructure level and land revenue were the critical factors of rural development, among which labor vitality, land revenue, scale of population and land were the major influence factors of rural hollowing. (3) The specific development stages of villages reduced labor vitality. The systematic restriction increased the scale of rural land relatively. The agglomeration of industry and employment to cities and development zones declined the land revenue. The underdevelopment of infrastructure aggravated the reduction of labor vitality. The higher income and education level of rural populations, the weaker their willingness to return to the villages, but the land complex slowed down the homestead withdrawal, which eventually led to the decrease of labor vitality and relative increase of rural land. In conclusion, the rural hollowing is the result of the interaction of various elements in the regional system of rural human-land relationship. To renovate rural hollowing, we must first realize that the decline and aging of rural population is inevitable. Then we should exploit the multi-functional value of rural areas, integrate the primary, secondary and tertiary industries and boost featured rural industries. Finally, we should deepen the reform of the land property rights system, so that the rights and interests of villagers can be fully realized.