基于生产要素视角的重庆市农业供给效率与发展潜力分析

目的 重庆市作为我国西部大开发重要的综合产业基地，探究该地区农业供给效率和农业发展潜力对促进农业可持续发展和农业政策制定具有积极意义。方法 文章以2001—2017年为研究时段，采用C-D生产函数模型对农业供给效率进行动态分析，采用熵权法构建农业发展潜力指数评价模型，并根据各地区农业发展潜力指数构建农业发展潜力竞争模型。结果 生产要素弹性分析结果表明2001—2017年农业劳动力弹性、农业土地弹性和化肥使用量弹性呈现负增长趋势，在农业供给侧结构中的贡献程度在逐渐减弱。农业资本弹性、农业机械总动力弹性和农业技术进步随着时间呈现增长的趋势，应该加大农业资本的投入，提高农业机械化程度，最大程度地提高农业生产效率。综合分析生产要素弹性和规模报酬指数，2001—2017年重庆市农业供给效率在不断提高。农业发展潜力指数分析结果表明2001—2017年全市农业发展潜力指数从47.15增长到60.13，各区县农业发展潜力指数也都呈明显的增长趋势。结论 重庆市农业经济增长方式已经由外延式增长方式逐渐转化为内涵式增长方式，农业经营方式从粗放型向密集型转化，农业供给效率在明显上升，各地区农业发展潜力指数在逐渐增加，经济发展程度对农业发展潜力具有明显的促进作用。

ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL IN CHONGQING FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF PRODUCTION FACTOR

Chongqing is an important comprehensive industrial base for the development of western China. It is of positive significance to explore the efficiency of agricultural supply and the potential of agricultural development in this area for promoting the sustainable development of agriculture and the formulation of agricultural policies. Taking 2001-2017 as the research period, this paper analyzed the agricultural supply efficiency dynamically by using the C-D production function model, and constructed an evaluation model of agricultural development potential index by entropy method. According to the agricultural development potential index of each region, the competition model of agricultural development potential was constructed. The results of elastic analysis of factors of production showed that the elasticity of agricultural labor force, the elasticity of agricultural land and the elasticity of chemical fertilizer use showed a negative growth trend from 2001 to 2017, and the contribution to the supply-side structure of agriculture was gradually weakening. The elasticity of agricultural capital, the total dynamic elasticity of agricultural machinery and the progress of agricultural technology showed an increasing trend with time. We should increase the input of agricultural capital, improve the degree of agricultural mechanization, and improve the efficiency of agricultural production to the maximum extent. Comprehensive analysis of factors of production elasticity and scale reward index showed that agricultural supply efficiency from 2001 to 2017 in Chongqing was constantly improving. From 2001 to 2017, the index of agricultural development potential increased from 47.15 to 60.13, and the index of agricultural development potential of every district and county also showed an obvious trend of growth. In summary, the mode of agricultural economic growth in Chongqing has been gradually transformed from the mode of externalized growth to the mode of implicit growth, and the mode of agricultural management has been transformed from extensive to intensive, and the efficiency of agricultural supply is obviously rising. The index of agricultural development potential is increasing gradually, and the degree of economic development plays an important role in promoting the development potential of agriculture.