我国乡村发展驱动因素与区域差异分析

目的]通过构建乡村发展驱动因素指标体系,从生产、生活、生态、人才和社会5个层面,分析我国乡村发展的主要驱动因素与各地区间发展差异分析。方法]文章运用层次分析法对乡村发展驱动指标进行权重测度,并采用多元线性回归模型对主要驱动因素进行解释,最后通过综合指数法对不同地区乡村发展差异展开分析。结果]乡村发展驱动因素排名为:生产生活生态人才社会.。结合多元回归结果显示:农业产业化龙头企业数量、农业院校、农民人均纯收入、水土流失治理率、财政涉农贷款余额5个因素,对农业GDP增量的解释度为89.82%。并且由弹性值可知,以上5个因素每增加1%,会分别为农业GDP产值带来23.576%、10.352%、5.675%、-0.964%、2.393%的增量。除了水土流失治理率外,其他4个因素均可独立地显著影响农业GDP值。区域差异分析得:北京、天津、内蒙古、黑龙江、上海、浙江、青海乡村发展水平略高,辽宁、吉林、江苏、福建、山东、湖北、海南、西藏、新疆次之,其他地区偏低。结论]农业产业化发展和农民生活水平提高是影响我国乡村发展的主要驱动因子;农业企业规模和农业人才培养是农业GDP增长的重要发力点。区域发展差异大,各因素对区域乡村发展水平贡献不同;区域优势引领产业发展与合理分配资金和人才资源,是缩短区域差异的有效途径。

ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FACTORS AND REGIONAL DIFFERENCES OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

By constructing the index system of driving factors of rural development, this paper analyses the main driving factors of rural development and the main factors leading to the differences of regional development in China from five aspects: production, life, ecology, talent and society. The driving indicators of rural development were weighted by analytic hierarchy process, and the main driving factors were explained by multiple linear regression model. Finally, the importance ranking of rural development factors was: production > life > ecology > talents > society. Combined with the results of multiple regression, the influence of various factors on agricultural GDP was obviously different. Among them, the number of leading enterprises in agricultural industrialization, agricultural colleges and universities, per capita net income of farmers, the rate of soil erosion control, and the balance of financial loans related to agriculture were the main driving factors. The comprehensive explanation of the increase of agricultural GDP was 89.82%. It can be seen from the elastic value that every 1% increase of the above factors would bring 23.576%, 10.352%, 5.675%, -0.964% and 2.393% increments to the output value of agricultural GDP. In addition to the soil erosion control rate, the other four factors can independently and significantly affected the agricultural GDP. According to the analysis of regional differences, the rural development level of Beijing, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Qinghai was slightly higher, followed by Liaoning, Jilin, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Hubei, Hainan, Tibet and Xinjiang, while that of other regions was relatively low. The development of agricultural industrialization and the improvement of farmers'' living standards are important driving factors affecting the development of rural areas in our country; the scale of agricultural enterprises and the cultivation of agricultural talents are the important driving forces for the growth of agricultural GDP. Regional development varies greatly, and each factor contributes differently to the level of regional rural development; regional advantages leading industrial development and rational allocation of funds and human resources are effective ways to reduce regional differences