中原经济区耕地压力时空演变及驱动因素研究

目的]严守耕地红线、合理利用和保护耕地资源,保障国家粮食安全。方法]文章采用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型,分析了2007—2016年中原经济区耕地压力时序变化特征,引入重心转移模型和变异系数,探究耕地压力重心的空间分布及迁移特征,并基于粮食生产因素和社会经济因素双重视角,选取10个指标运用灰色关联分析法对影响中原经济区耕地压力变化的驱动因素进行研究。结果]2007—2016年中原经济区耕地压力指数呈现阶段性特征,总体处于波动递减的趋势,各地级市耕地压力离散程度和空间差异不断拉大,空间分布不均衡,东西分化趋势显著;耕地压力重心从西北向东南方向迁移,在郑州市区域移动;选取的影响因素指标对耕地压力变化均有影响,关联度大小依次为人均GDP城市化水平农民收入产业结构化肥投入灌溉水平复种指数粮食单产量耕地质量人均耕地面积。结论]社会经济因素对耕地压力影响显著,是影响耕地压力变动的主导因素。

STUDY ON THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF CULTIVATED LAND PRESSURE AND ITS DRIVING FACTORS IN CENTRAL PLAINS ECONOMIC REGION

In order to ensure national food security, the red line of cultivated land must be strictly observed, and the cultivated land resources should be rationally utilized and protected. Based on the model of minimum per capita cultivated land area and the model of pressure index, the temporal variation characteristics of cultivated land pressure in Central Plains Economic Zone were analyzed form 2007 to 2016. The model of gravity and the coefficient of variation were introduced to explore the characteristics of spatial distribution and migration of gravity of cultivated land pressure. From the dual perspectives of food production factors and socio-economic factors, this paper selected 10 indicators to study the driving factors of changing of cultivated land pressure in Central Plains Economic Zone by using grey correlation analysis. From 2007 to 2016, the cultivated land pressure index in the Central Plains Economic Zone presented a periodic feature and the overall trend was decreasing, the degree of dispersion and spatial difference of cultivated land pressure in different cities were increasing, the spatial distribution was unbalanced and the trend of East-West differentiation was obvious. The gravity of cultivated land pressure moved from northwest to southeast in Zhengzhou. The selected indicators had impact on the change of cultivated land pressure and the sequence of the correlation degree are per capita GDP > urbanization level > the income of farmer > industrial structure > fertilizer input > irrigation level > multiple cropping index > grain output per unit area > cultivated land quality > per capita cultivated land area. Socio-economic factors have a significant impact on cultivated land pressure, and they are the dominant factors affecting the change of cultivated land pressure.