青岛市海洋第三产业与整体经济发展关系实证研究

文章主要根据青岛市1998～2012年海洋第三产业及GDP相关数据，首先运用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验方法定量分析了青岛市海洋第三产业与整体经济发展之间的关系，结果表明，两者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系并呈现单向因果关系。随后将青岛市海洋第三产业的长期均衡因素引入到短期预测模型，建立ECM模型，通过模型结构分析得出了影响青岛海洋第三产业的长期均衡因素和短期波动因素。在计量结果分析基础上，着重分析了海洋第三产业与整体经济发展的现实互动关系，最后针对青岛市海洋第三产业的发展提出了加强基础设施建设、制定政策优惠措施，拓宽融资渠道及丰富海洋第三产业产品等建议。

Relationship between the third marine industry and macroeconomic of Qingdao based on co-integration analysis and error correction model

Mainly adopting 1998-2012 data of the third Marine industry and GDP of Qingdao, the paper made empirical analysis of the interactive relationship between the third Marine industry and macroeconomic by means of unit root test, co-integration test and granger causal relation test .The results display that the two aspects have stable long-term equilibrium relationship, and present one-way causality. Furthermore, by constructing and analyzing the Error Correction Models （ECM）, the long-run equilibrium and short fluctuation factors to make the third Marine industry of Qingdao fluctuated was described. The paper also analyzed the relationship between the third Marine industry and macroeconomic based on the above analysis. Meanwhile, it presented some suggestions to solve the development problems of the third Marine industry of Qingdao.