机遇利用的定量分析研究

机遇可以使人们实现正常情况下难以实现的目标或获取超常收益，然而机遇是与不确定性联系在一起的，利用机遇一项风险决策。要利用机遇争取发展，必须对机遇进行科学考察和分析，本文提供了对机遇进行定量分析的程序和方法，包括发现有利形势、分析机遇时空分布、价值评估与投入策略等等。本文认为机遇收益与风险损失具有非对称性，主要由社会主体信息占有率和应变能力决定。

A Study on Quantitative Analysis to Take of Advantage of Opportunity

The opportunity helps people realize the target that is hardly achieved in a normal situation or gain excess earnings. However, the opportunity always has relation with uncertainty. It is a risk decision to make use of the opportunity. To keep on developing by making use of the opportunity, we must scientifically research and analyze it. The article provides the procedure and the method of quantitative analysis for the opportunity. The procedure and the method include how to find out the beneficial situation, analyze the time and the place of the opportunity, assess the value of the opportunity and the tactics of investment, and so on. The article points out that the gain of the opportunity and the loss of the risk are asymmetry and they are mainly decided by the ratio of the information holded by the people to all information and the people's ability.