云南普洱茶市场价格预警指标体系的设计与测度

基于云南普洱茶市场面临的国内外环境状态，依据经济预警和农产品预警理论基础，以及指标优选原则，设计包括警情、警源和警兆的云南普洱茶市场价格预警指标体系，并以勐海沱茶的市场价格波动为例，应用时差相关分析法得到9个先行指标，5个同步指标和10个滞后指标，由此反映云南普洱茶市场价格时滞的影响因素。这既有利于帮助决策者根据指标的等级变化采取针对性措施，又为进一步研究打下良好的基础。

Design and Measurement of Price Early Warning Index System for Yunnan Pu 'er Tea Market

Based on Yunnan Pu''er tea market faced the domestic and international environment, according to the theoretical basis of economic early warning and agricultural product early warning, and the principle of index optimization, this paper designs the price early warning index system of Yunnan Pu''er tea market, which includes warning situation, warning source and warning sign. Taking the market price fluctuation of menghaituo tea as an example, 9 leading indicators, 5 synchronous indicators and 10 lagging indicators were obtained by time difference correlation analysis, which reflected the influencing factors of price lag in Yunnan Pu''er tea market. This will not only help decision makers to take targeted measures according to the changes of indicators, but also lay a good foundation for further research.