“变或不变”:粮食最低收购价下调对稻作大户种植结构调整行为研究

粮食最低收购价是我国粮食宏观调控的重要政策工具,在当前"去库降本"和"提质增效"背景下,下调粮食最低收购价已成为粮食价格体系改革的主要着力点,但农户行为对政策的响应程度决定了其效能作用的空间。因此本文以湖南省为例,以稻作大户种植结构调整行为为切入点,通过61村188户稻作大户的微观调查,研究粮食最低收购价下调的政策影响。实证结果表明,稻谷最低收购价格降低时,稻作大户维持既有水稻种植面积的概率高于改种其他经济作物的概率,即选择"不变"。"不变"的原因是适度规模经营补贴政策能在一定程度上稳定稻作大户的种粮预期,有利于促使农户保持生产的稳定性。因此,这为政府在水稻品种实行的"价补分离"政策提供了经验证据。

Study on the Effect of Lowering Minimum Purchasing Price of Grain on the Planting Structure of Large Scale Rice Farmers: Based on Micro-survey of 188 Large Scale Rice Farmers

The minimum purchasing price is an important policy tool for macro-control of grain market, which has significant impact on the increasing of both grain production and farmers ' income. Under the current background of u Declining inventory and reducing cost" and ” Improving quality and increasing efficiency", lower the minimum purchasing price of grain has become the main focus of the systematic reform of grain price. However, the responsiveness of farmers ' behavior to policy determines the space of its effectiveness. Therefore, this paper takes Hunan Province as an example, based on the micro-survey of 188 large scale rice farmers in 61 villages,it studies the policy impact of lowering the minimum purchasing price of grain from the prospective of adjustment behavior of large scale rice farmers ' planting structure. The empirical results reveal that: When the purchasing price of grain is reduced ,the probability of large scale rice farmers maintaining existing planting area is higher than that of replanting other cash crops, namely they choose u unchangen . Because the empirical results reveal that the appropriate scale subsidy for large-scale planting can stabilize the policy expectation of grain planting to some certain extent, and also helpful to maintain the stability of production. Therefore, this provides empirical evidence for the governmenfs policy of u price-compensation separationn conducted on rice varieties.