货币政策组合规则

本文建议在泡沫高涨时将货币政策由利率规则转为货币量规则。在本文设定的CIA模型经济中,外生泡沫通过金融渠道对经济发生影响。本文证实,即使是遵循了泰勒原则的利率规则也会因为对融资活动的增长提供相应的货币支持而实际上起到助长泡沫经济的作用;而货币量规则由于对货币供应的控制而能起到缩短并稳定泡沫经济影响的效果。本文的模拟实验表明,在大型泡沫经济中将利率规则与货币量规则组合使用能取得更好的宏观经济成果。同时,将不同规则进行组合使用的思想在货币政策的研究中是新颖的,本文还发展了模型对接的技术处理方法。

COMBINED MONETARY RULES IN A BUBBLE ECONOMY

The essence of this paper is a suggestion that the monetary rule should shift interest rate-based rules to rules focusing on monetary aggregates facing an upsurge of bubbles in the economy. Exogenous bubbles influence the economy through finance channels in a cash-in-advance model in which money is required in acquiring financial assets. Interest rate rules, even those consistent with the Taylor principle, encourage the growth of bubbles by supplying more money. Aggregates-based rules are helpful by curbing...