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Models of political risk for foreign investment and trade: An assessment of three approaches
Institution:1. Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, West Bengal, India;2. Department of Marketing, National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Mumbai, India;3. Faculty and Research, Strategic Management, School of Business, University of Nicosia, Cyprus;1. College of Business, University of Jeddah, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia;2. Higher Institute of Management, University of Carthage, Tunisia Faculty of Economics and Management of Tunis, International Finance Group Lab., University of Tunis El Manar, Tunisia;3. Higher Institute of Management, Tunis University, Tunisia;4. Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux (LIEC), UMR 7360 CNRS / Université de Lorraine, Bâtiment IBiSE - Campus Bridoux - 8 rue du Général Delestraint, F-57070, METZ, France;5. Associate Professor of Finance & Insurance- College of Business, University of Jeddah, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia;1. Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland;2. Development Economics Research Group, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark;3. Centre for Global Development, London, United Kingdom;4. UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland;1. Northwestern University, United States;2. University of Delaware, United States;3. University of Richmond, United States
Abstract:While political risk methods have been used extensively for the last two decades, little has been done to test any of their projections against actual losses. This study compares the 1986 projections of The Economist, Political Risk Services, and BERI against losses incurred in the 1987–1992 period. Discussion focuses on how to determine the extent of losses by foreign investors and on pinpointing the source of those losses. It stresses the connection between theory and profit/loss consequences for businesses and the impact of poorly tested methods on corporate strategic planning.
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