金融危机理论沿革及新发展

金融是现代经济的核心,金融部门的风险和不稳定性因素可能极大地影响实体经济的运行,因此,正确评估一国所面临的金融风险成为维护一国金融体系稳定的重要内容。在学术界,金融危机（稳定性）理论已经过了强调“基础经济变量”的第一代模型、强调“心理因素”和“预期自致型危机”的第二代模型和对国家资产负债状况进行总体分析的第三代模型的衍变过程。资产负债分析是第三代理论研究模型的核心,但由于统计资料的局限性,这一分析方法在我国的应用还受到诸多限制。

The Review and Development of Financial Crisis Theory

Financial sections are the core of the modern economy, but the risk and unsteady factor of this section may affect economy badly. Therefore, it is very important for a country to estimate the risk its financial sector faced. In the research on financial crisis, it has been revolved from the first generation model, which stressed on ＂fundamental weakness＂ , to the second generation model, which focused on ＂psychological factors＂ and ＂self-fulfilling crisis＂ to the third generation model, which stressed on the total balance sheet to analyze balance sheet vulnerabilities. Analysis of the total balanee sheet is the core of the third generation model. Because of the limit of the statistical data, it is very hard to apply this approach in China.