中国-东盟相互贸易依存度与建立东亚货币区的路径选择

本文在最优货币区理论的框架下,通过对中国与东盟人均GDP最高的6个成员国之间相互贸易依存度的回归分析和趋势预测,对比欧元区的历史经验得出,在目前和今后一段时期内尚不具备建立整个东亚货币区的条件下,东亚货币区的建设值得考虑的路径应该是:第一,首先推动中国的内地、香港、澳门和台湾四大经济体的经济与货币一体化;第二,在中国—东盟自由贸易区的基础上推动中国和东盟人均GDP最高的6个国家组成“1+6”货币区;第三,“1+6”货币区再分阶段吸引韩国、日本和其他4个东盟成员国加入,从而最终促成东亚货币区的形成。

The Degree of Trade Dependence between China and ASEA and the Path Selection of Currency Area in Eastern Asia

Based on the Optimal Currency Theory and through regression analysis and tendency forecasting on the degree of trade dependence between China and the top six member countries in terms of per capita GDP in ASEAN as well as comparing with the historical experiences in the Euro Area, this paper suggests that, when we can not be able to set up the currency area in the whole Eastern Asia at present and near future, the worthy way to construct the currency area in Eastern Asia should be as follows: firstly, try to drive the economic and monetary integration in four economic regions of China, that is, mainland of China, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR and Taiwan of China; secondly, try to drive the"1+6"currency area between China and the top six member countries in terms of per capita GDP in ASEAN based on the Free Trade Area between China and ASEAN. Thirdly, the"1+6"currency area absorbs South Korea, Japan and the other four member states of ASEAN to join gradually and complete the currency area in the whole Eastern Asia finally.